Statwell

A big age gap has usually favoured the younger fighter

Since 2001, when one UFC fighter was at least six years younger than the other, the younger fighter won 1,382 of 2,164 bouts (64%). The edge grows with the gap: 69% at ten years or more.

63.9%Bouts won by the younger fighter when the age gap is 6 years or more

1,382 of 2,164 · UFC bouts since 2001

In the last five years (25 Oct 2021 to 24 Oct 2026): 70.6% (494 of 700).

Wilson 95%: 61.8% to 65.9%

Breakdown

Breakdown of Bouts won by the younger fighter when the age gap is 6 years or more
GroupShareCount
Under 3 years53.3%1,988 of 3,731
3 to 5 years57.1%1,476 of 2,587
6 to 9 years62.2%1,036 of 1,665
10 years or more69.3%346 of 499

How this was measured

Ages on the event date from each fighter's date of birth on UFC Stats. Every decided UFC bout since 1 January 2001 with both dates of birth known and a non-zero gap is counted once, from the younger fighter's side, and grouped by the size of the gap.

Included

  • Decided UFC bouts since 2001 (a winner)
  • Both dates of birth known
  • Age gap of 6 years or more for the headline figure

Left out

  • Draws and no contests (151)
  • A date of birth missing

Caveats

  • An association, not a cause: younger fighters may also be on the rise and older ones past their best.
  • Pre-fight expectations already account for much of the gap (research catalog: age_gap_market_adjusted).

How it was checked

  • nlbair's own age columns give the same result on the same bouts (64.9% vs 64.8%, 2013+).
  • Reproduced exactly by an independent re-implementation written from the definition alone (28 Oct 2026).
  • Survives the Benjamini–Hochberg correction across all 59 tested research hypotheses (q < 0.001).
  • Research catalog entry `age_gap_6plus_younger_wins` (validated).

Sources and updates

Data as of 24 Oct 2026. Recalculated after UFC events and reviewed by an editor before any change is shown. A historical description, not a prediction for any fight.

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