Inside a Statwell Intel analysis.
Statwell’s Verdict first, then eight sections. One fight. Data, context and tactical reasoning, organized in one place.
Facts and readings, kept apart.
Data
- Records and results
- Measured figures, with bouts and minutes
- Facts quoted from a named source
Interpretation
- Edges, with their size and reasoning
- Scenarios marked on the record or hypothesis
- Paths: conditions, not predictions
Evidence
- Source links under each statement
- The sample beside every figure
- What could not be established, said plainly
Fighter A vs Fighter B
Weight class · rounds · place on the cardIllustration of structure, not a real fight analysis
Statwell Intel
Statwell's Verdict
Which fighter the analysis favors, a qualitative assessment, the reasoning and the strongest counterargument.
Our analysis favors Fighter A.
Slight Edge, Clear Edge or Strong Edge
The strongest counterargument
An evidence-based editorial assessment of this matchup, reviewed before publication. It is not a guarantee of any result or a betting recommendation. When the evidence separates neither fighter, the Verdict says so: No clear edge.
Style matchup
Where each fighter holds an edge, how large it is, and why.
Striking
Fighter A · Slight
The reasoning, with the figures it rests onWrestling
Fighter B · Clear
The reasoning, with the figures it rests onGrappling
Even
The reasoning, with the figures it rests onCardio (later rounds)
Unclear: the record cannot say
The reasoning, with the figures it rests on
Each edge has a size (slight, clear, strong) and the reasoning behind it. When the record cannot separate them, it says so.
Tactical style clash
How the two styles meet, the scenarios the fight can follow and the factor most likely to swing it.
01On the record
A tendency the record shows
The scenario and what it rests on02Hypothesis
A reading of how it could play out
The scenario and what it rests on
The swing factor
Context flags
Layoffs, short notice, weight, camp and stakes, each sourced and dated.
Layoff
NotableFighter AWhat happened, and whenSource · date
Short notice
MajorFighter BWhat happened, and whenSource · date
Weight
MinorFighter BWhat happened, and whenSource · date
Stakes
MinorBoth fightersWhat happened, and whenSource · date
Trend splits
Recent UFC bouts against the whole measured UFC record, with the sample behind every figure.
Fighter A
| Measure | Last 3bouts · minutes | UFC careerbouts · minutes |
|---|---|---|
| Sig. strikes landed per minute | ||
| Striking accuracy | ||
| Takedowns per 15 minutes | ||
| Takedown accuracy | ||
| Average fight time |
Fighter B
| Measure | Last 3bouts · minutes | UFC careerbouts · minutes |
|---|---|---|
| Sig. strikes landed per minute | ||
| Striking accuracy | ||
| Takedowns per 15 minutes | ||
| Takedown accuracy | ||
| Average fight time |
Every column states its sample: how many measured bouts and minutes it covers. Small samples are called small.
Performance vs Expectations
See how each fighter performed in past UFC bouts as a favourite, underdog or in a close matchup.
Fighter A
As favourite
As underdog
Close matchups
Fighter B
As favourite
As underdog
Close matchups
Wins and losses by each fighter’s standing before the fight, from the prices and coverage published at the time. Available once every past UFC bout for both fighters has a verified pre-fight standing.
Tactical evidence
Each note says how it is known: seen on tape, reported by a source, inferred from the figures, or a tactical hypothesis.
Observed on tape
The tactical noteWhy it matters.
Who watched, which bout, which round
Reported
The tactical noteWhy it matters.
The outlet and the article it comes from
Inferred from data
The tactical noteWhy it matters.
The figures it is based on
Tactical hypothesis
The tactical noteWhy it matters.
The evidence it is built on
Paths through the fight
What each fighter needs to make happen.
Fighter A
- 01
What the fight needs to become
The condition and the evidence for it - 02
Where that plan can fail
The condition and the evidence for it
Fighter B
- 01
What the fight needs to become
The condition and the evidence for it - 02
Where that plan can fail
The condition and the evidence for it
Research summary
The factors that matter most, the open questions and a balanced synthesis.
Synthesis