Statwell

UFC trilogies tied 1–1: a short record of how the deciders went

In 12 UFC trilogies where the first two meetings were split, the winner of the second meeting also won the third 9 times. That is too few cases to call a tendency: every case is listed, and none says who wins the next one.

9 of 12Deciders won by the winner of the second meeting

9 of 12 · UFC history since UFC 2 (1994)

Wilson 95% (small sample: a case record, not a rule): 46.8% to 91.1%

Every case (12)

  1. 21 Aug 2004Randy Couture vs Vitor BelfortRandy Couture won · Won the first meeting
  2. 4 Feb 2006Randy Couture vs Chuck LiddellChuck Liddell won · Won the second meeting
  3. 8 Jul 2006Tim Sylvia vs Andrei ArlovskiTim Sylvia won · Won the second meeting
  4. 29 Dec 2007Matt Hughes vs Georges St-PierreGeorges St-Pierre won · Won the second meeting
  5. 20 Nov 2010Matt Hughes vs BJ PennBJ Penn won · Won the first meeting
  6. 22 Jun 2012Sam Stout vs Spencer FisherSam Stout won · Won the first meeting
  7. 7 Jul 2012Tito Ortiz vs Forrest GriffinForrest Griffin won · Won the second meeting
  8. 19 Oct 2013Cain Velasquez vs Junior Dos SantosCain Velasquez won · Won the second meeting
  9. 15 Aug 2020Stipe Miocic vs Daniel CormierStipe Miocic won · Won the second meeting
  10. 10 Jul 2021Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregorDustin Poirier won · Won the second meeting
  11. 18 Mar 2023Kamaru Usman vs Leon EdwardsLeon Edwards won · Won the second meeting
  12. 24 Oct 2026Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr YanPetr Yan won · Won the second meeting

How this was measured

Pairs who met at least three times in the UFC (UFC Stats ids), the first two meetings won by different fighters, and a winner in the third.

Included

  • UFC trilogies since 1994
  • First two meetings split 1–1
  • Third meeting decisive

Left out

  • Trilogies with a draw or no contest in the first two meetings, or in the third

Caveats

  • A small set of cases: the plausible range runs from about 47% to 91%, so the record is compatible with no tendency at all.
  • Trilogies are booked because the series is close; meetings outside the UFC are not counted.
  • A record of past trilogies, not a forecast for any upcoming one.

How it was checked

  • Reproduced exactly by an independent re-implementation written from the definition alone (28 Oct 2026).
  • Shown as a case record only: the research test (fight-2 winner favoured over a coin flip) did not reach significance (p = 0.15), so the page states the count and the cases, not a tendency.
  • Not statistically significant: p = 0.15 against a coin flip, q = 0.2 after the Benjamini–Hochberg correction across all 59 tested research hypotheses (threshold 0.05). Shown as a count of cases only.
  • Research catalog entry `trilogy_split_fight2_winner` (exploratory).

Sources and updates

Data as of 24 Oct 2026. Recalculated after UFC events and reviewed by an editor before any change is shown. A historical description, not a prediction for any fight.

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