Statwell

In UFC rematches, the winner of the first meeting has won again more often than not

Since 2001, the winner of the first UFC meeting won the rematch 100 times in 169 (59%).

59.2%Rematches won by the winner of the first UFC meeting

100 of 169 · UFC bouts since 2001

Wilson 95%: 51.6% to 66.3%

How this was measured

Pairs of fighters identified by their UFC Stats ids; the second UFC meeting is compared with the first. Both meetings must have a winner.

Included

  • Second UFC meetings since 2001
  • A winner in both meetings

Left out

  • A draw or no contest in either meeting (27)

Caveats

  • Rematches are booked when the first fight was close or controversial, which pulls the rate towards 50%.
  • Meetings outside the UFC are not counted.

How it was checked

  • Hold-out by period: 56.0% in 2001–2013 (n=50) and 60.5% in 2014–2026 (n=119).
  • jansen88's independent scrape gives 61.1% (88 of 144) to Sep 2023; our build 61.7% on the same window.
  • Reproduced exactly by an independent re-implementation written from the definition alone (28 Oct 2026).
  • Survives the Benjamini–Hochberg correction across all 59 tested research hypotheses (q = 0.037).
  • Research catalog entry `rematch_first_winner_repeats` (validated).

Sources and updates

Data as of 24 Oct 2026. Recalculated after UFC events and reviewed by an editor before any change is shown. A historical description, not a prediction for any fight.

In fight analyses

Every Statwell Pattern