In UFC decisions, the fighter who landed more significant strikes has won about four in five
In UFC decisions since 2001, the fighter who landed more significant strikes won 3,133 of 3,980 (79%). With a lead of 41 strikes or more it was 97%.
78.7%Decisions won by the fighter who landed more significant strikes
3,133 of 3,980 · UFC bouts since 2001
Wilson 95%: 77.4% to 80.0%
Breakdown
| Group | Share | Count |
|---|---|---|
| Lead of 1 to 5 strikes | 57.2% | 343 of 600 |
| Lead of 6 to 10 strikes | 66.3% | 382 of 576 |
| Lead of 11 to 20 strikes | 74.3% | 707 of 952 |
| Lead of 21 to 40 strikes | 88.7% | 1,016 of 1,146 |
| Lead of 41 or more strikes | 97.0% | 685 of 706 |
How this was measured
UFC decisions since 2001 with complete statistics; significant strikes as counted by UFC Stats. Decisions with equal counts are left out.
Included
- UFC decisions since 2001 with complete statistics
- Significant strikes landed differ
Left out
- Equal significant strikes landed (55)
Caveats
- Measured after the fight: it describes how decisions followed each bout's own statistics, not what can be known before a fight.
- UFC Stats' significant-strike definition, charted after the fact for bouts before 2007.
How it was checked
- Hold-out by period: 80.8% in 2001–2013 (n=920) and 78.1% in 2014–2026 (n=3,060).
- Reproduced exactly by an independent re-implementation written from the definition alone (28 Oct 2026).
- Survives the Benjamini–Hochberg correction across all 59 tested research hypotheses (q < 0.001).
- Research catalog entry `judges_side_with_strike_leader` (validated).
Sources and updates
- Greco1899/scrape_ufc_stats @5d6622f · GPL-3.0 (code); data from UFC Stats
- nlbair/ufc-data @a9c6543 · CC BY 4.0 (files)
Data as of 24 Oct 2026. Recalculated after UFC events and reviewed by an editor before any change is shown. A historical description, not a prediction for any fight.